On the Epistemological Status of the Efficient Market Hypothesis

Guillaume Vuillemey

Table of Contents


This article studies the epistemological status of the efficient markets hypothesis. Without judging whether it is true or not, we show that it cannot, in any rigorous and meaningful sense, be understood as an empirical and testable proposition. No experience exists which can irrevocably falsify it. On the contrary, we show that it can only be understood as an analytic proposition, i.e., as opening a new and self-consistent system of definitions. We outline the principle directions of the new research program that the formulation of the efficient markets hypothesis has created.


  • efficient markets hypothesis
  • asset pricing
  • research programme